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如果核心对抗的议题被削弱,受益于对抗结构的既得利益集团将首先感到威胁。因此,“妥协”不仅挑战政权的核心政治正确,更意味着对内部权力生态的重组风险。为确保自身生存,革命卫队等强力部门及相关利益集团,在外部压力下会被迫团结一致,为捍卫政权及其共同利益而战。

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A smaller but still concerning impact would be a scenario such as a “Great Recession for white-collar workers.” During the 2007-2009 Great Recession, unemployment rates doubled from 5% to 10% in the US. Such a doubling in the top quartile of exposure would increase its unemployment rate from 3% to 6%. This should be visible in our analysis as well. Note that our core estimate is based on differential changes in the unemployment rate in the exposed group compared to the less exposed group. If unemployment increased for all workers in parallel, we would not attribute this to AI advancements that still leave many tasks unaffected.

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